South China Sea expert warns 2026 code of conduct is ‘simply not achievable’
South China Morning Post
by Fan ChenMarch 2, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
A renowned South China Sea expert has expressed skepticism about the possibility of finalizing a code of conduct in 2026, despite recent improvements in relations between Beijing and Manila. Wu Shicun, president of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, emphasized that achieving such an agreement this year is highly improbable as the Philippines assumes the rotating chairmanship of ASEAN. He highlighted the complexity of negotiations and the divergent interests among claimant states.
Wu pointed out that the code of conduct aims to establish rules for managing disputes in the contested waters but faces significant hurdles due to differing priorities among nations. While China has shown flexibility in discussions, other countries like Vietnam and Malaysia remain cautious about Beijing's influence. The expert stressed that without consensus on core issues, such as territory and resource rights, progress will be challenging.
The South China Sea issue is crucial for regional stability and global trade routes. Wu's comments reflect broader concerns within the international community about ASEAN's ability to lead effective negotiations. His stance underscores the need for a balanced approach to ensure the agreement benefits all parties involved, fostering peace and cooperation in one of the world's most strategic waterways.
Ultimately, Wu Shicun's warning serves as a reminder that achieving a code of conduct requires sustained dialogue and compromise. The outcome will not only shape the South China Sea's future but also impact global security and economic interests. As ASEAN takes center stage, the success or failure of these negotiations could set a precedent for resolving similar disputes worldwide.
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Originally published on South China Morning Post on 3/2/2026