South Dakota Is Buzzing About Kristi Noem’s Future
The Atlantic
February 20, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
South Dakota is abuzz with speculation about whether Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem will leave her Cabinet position to challenge Senator Mike Rounds in the state’s June Republican primary. While some Republicans hope she stays, political allies of Rounds are preparing for a potential race, despite skepticism that Noem will actually make the move. To enter the primary, Noem would need to register and gather 2,171 signatures by mid-March. A Noem adviser has stated she has no plans to leave her current role, but some believe her incentive to run could increase if Democrats regain control of the House and launch investigations into her DHS tenure.
Noem’s standing with the Trump White House is increasingly shaky, as she has ceded some leadership roles in immigration enforcement to White House “border czar” Tom Homan. Internal frustration with her performance has led some to believe her Cabinet position is no longer secure, though President Trump has praised her publicly and shown reluctance to remove Cabinet members under political pressure. The situation is further complicated by a partial government shutdown due to a lack of funding for DHS, which Democrats blame on Noem’s policies.
Meanwhile, Republicans in South Dakota are bracing for potential fallout from a hypothetical race between Rounds and Noem. Polling firms have been gauging voter sentiment, though details about who is funding the surveys remain unclear. Some national Republican strategists argue that Rounds’ unpopularity among primary voters could make him an easy target, while his allies defend his long history of successful statewide campaigns.
The possibility of Noem running has also sparked discussions within Trump’s inner circle about delaying any potential leadership change at DHS until after the filing deadline. However, White House spokesperson Davis Ingle declined to comment directly on the matter, and Noem’s team has not conducted polling on the race.
This unfolding drama highlights broader tensions within the Republican Party over immigration policy, political strategy, and loyalty to President Trump. Whether Noem ultimately decides to run or not, her potential challenge to Rounds could have significant implications for South Dakota’s political landscape—and the broader national conversation about immigration enforcement and leadership stability in the Trump administration.
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Originally published on The Atlantic on 2/20/2026