State elections could spell doom for Germany's oldest party
Deutsche Welle
February 19, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
The Social Democrats (SPD), Germany's oldest political party, are facing a significant challenge as they prepare for five state elections this year. Recent polls indicate the SPD could lose power in two states where it has traditionally held influence, while its support has dropped to single digits in others. This decline reflects broader shifts in German society and politics.
The SPD was founded in 1863 as a workers' party, representing the interests of factory employees facing poor working conditions and low wages. Over time, blue-collar workers became its core base, drawn to its promise of social equality and opportunity. However, the traditional working class has since evolved, with many industrial workers now part of the middle class. This shift has eroded the SPD's connection to its historical voter base.
The SPD's struggles are also linked to internal disputes over welfare policies. Under Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (1998-2005), the party implemented Agenda 2010, a sweeping reform that reduced state benefits and expanded low-wage sectors. While this agenda boosted Germany's economy, it alienated many SPD supporters, leading to a split within the party. Some left-wing members defected to form the Left Party (Die Linke), while others shifted their votes to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) or even the Christian Democrats (CDU).
The SPD's political trajectory has been further complicated by its long-standing coalitions with the CDU, which has gradually adopted similar policies. This blurring of lines has made it harder for voters to distinguish between the two parties. The SPD's inability to push through more left-wing policies during these coalitions has also hindered its appeal.
Despite these challenges, the SPD regained momentum under Olaf Scholz, who became chancellor in 2021 after a strong performance in the general election. However, the upcoming state elections will test whether this resurgence is sustainable. The party's success or failure could have far-reaching implications for Germany's political landscape and its ability to address pressing social and economic issues.
This situation matters not just for Germany but for understanding broader trends in European politics. The SPD's decline reflects shifting voter priorities and the challenges traditional center-left parties face in adapting to changing societies. As the elections unfold, they will provide critical insights into the future of German democracy and the SPD's role within it.
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Originally published on Deutsche Welle on 2/19/2026