Thanks to Trump, Xi Has Time on His Side With Taiwan
Foreign Policy
by Ali WyneFebruary 25, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
The likelihood of China invading Taiwan in the near future has decreased due to President Donald Trump's policies, which are seen as creating opportunities for Beijing to expand its influence over the island without resorting to military force. This shift is driven by several factors, including Trump's apparent indifference to Taiwan's security and his business-focused approach, which prioritizes economic interests like semiconductor manufacturing over strategic concerns. While Trump has approved arms sales to Taiwan, his administration has overall downplayed the importance of the island, viewing it through the lens of trade and technology rather than as a critical ally in Asia.
China's leader Xi Jinping appears confident that Trump will not hinder China's efforts to assert dominance over Taiwan. This confidence is bolstered by political trends in both Washington and Taipei, which are currently favorable to Beijing. Xi likely sees an opportunity to advance his goals through diplomatic and economic means rather than military action, as any invasion would carry significant risks and uncertainties. The focus for China now seems to be on leveraging these conditions to strengthen its influence without triggering a direct confrontation with the United States.
This strategic shift matters because it underscores the delicate balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region. While the short-term risk of conflict has diminished, the long-term implications for US-China relations and regional stability remain uncertain. The situation highlights how political dynamics and economic interests can shape international security strategies, offering insights into the broader challenges of managing relations between major powers like the United States and China.
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Originally published on Foreign Policy on 2/25/2026