This Is the Worst Thing That Could Happen to the International Space Station

Wired

by Rebecca Heilweil

February 25, 2026

AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary

The International Space Station (ISS) faces a critical threat from orbital debris, which could lead to catastrophic consequences such as depressurization. With millions of pieces of debris, including spent rocket stages and micrometeoroids, traveling at speeds up to 17,000 mph in Earth’s orbit, the risk of collision is ever-present. While smaller particles often harmlessly dent or crack the ISS’s exterior, a direct puncture could breach its structure, causing rapid depressurization. NASA estimates that even a small hole, just 0.6 centimeters wide, would give crew members about 14 hours to respond and repair. However, a larger breach of 20 centimeters would leave them with less than a minute to act, leading to potential hypoxia and other life-threatening conditions for the astronauts onboard. Efforts to mitigate this risk include NASA’s “pizza box” no-fly zone around the ISS and the Space Surveillance Network, which tracks larger debris pieces. When there’s a 1 in 100,000 chance of collision, the ISS maneuvers to avoid debris. However, current systems have limitations, such as only tracking about 45,000 large fragments and missing smaller ones that fall within a critical size range. Despite these measures, the risk remains significant—NASA calculates the likelihood of a depressurization event over six months between

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Originally published on Wired on 2/25/2026