Trump Claimed Trade Gap Shrank By 78%—But It Settled Near A Historic High In 2025

Forbes Business

by Ty Roush, Forbes Staff

February 19, 2026

AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary

President Donald Trump claimed that the U.S. trade gap shrank by an impressive 78% during his tenure, but data shows it actually settled near a historic high in 2025. This discrepancy highlights the complex relationship between trade policies, economic factors, and global markets. While Trump’s tariffs initially disrupted trade flows, leading to a temporary decline in the trade gap earlier in his presidency, long-term trends suggest that the gap has rebounded significantly. The trade gap, which measures the difference between imports and exports, reached a 16-year low two months prior to Trump’s tariff implementation. However, by 2025, it had surged again, reflecting broader economic dynamics such as global demand shifts, supply chain challenges, and geopolitical tensions. This resurgence underscores the challenges of predicting and controlling trade balances through policy interventions alone. The situation raises important questions about the effectiveness of protectionist measures like tariffs in achieving lasting economic benefits. While Trump’s policies may have temporarily reduced the trade gap, they also contributed to broader trade disruptions and higher costs for consumers and businesses. The long-term implications of these actions on U.S. trade relations and global economics remain a critical area of focus for business leaders and policymakers alike. For readers interested in business and finance, understanding the interplay between trade policies, economic indicators, and market dynamics is essential. This story not only sheds light on the complexities of trade negotiations but also highlights the potential risks and rewards of protectionist strategies. As the U.S. continues to navigate an evolving global economy, the lessons from this period could shape future trade policy decisions and their impact on businesses worldwide.

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Originally published on Forbes Business on 2/19/2026