Trump loves cheap gas—but a military conflict in Iran could nearly double your price at the pump

Fortune

by Jordan Blum

February 21, 2026

AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary

The U.S. military buildup near Iran, the largest since 2003, has created a volatile situation that could drastically impact global oil prices. Experts warn that if tensions escalate into a full-scale conflict, gasoline prices in the U.S. could spike to $5 per gallon. This extreme scenario hinges on Iran’s potential actions, such as blocking the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow waterway through which nearly 20 million barrels of oil pass daily. Geopolitical analysts suggest that if Iran feels cornered, it might resort to desperate measures like mining the strait or attacking its Arab neighbors, leading to an existential crisis for global energy markets. The current tensions are more severe than last summer, with both the U.S. and Iran appearing unwilling to compromise on a nuclear deal. Iran’s regime is under internal pressure due to civil unrest, making it increasingly desperate. Experts predict that if conflict breaks out, oil prices could rise by $15-$20 per barrel, pushing gasoline prices closer to $5. However, the odds of a diplomatic resolution remain higher for now, with some suggesting Trump’s focus on lowering gas prices aligns with his election-year priorities. While a major conflict would have catastrophic effects, a limited military action might lead to only modest price increases. OPEC members, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, could increase production to offset supply disruptions from a minor conflict. However, any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would be unsustainable for

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Originally published on Fortune on 2/21/2026