Trump vows ‘we will always protect Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid,’ but his signature tax cut shortened their lifespans

Fortune

by Nick Lichtenberg

February 25, 2026

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President Donald Trump has repeatedly vowed to protect Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid while touting the benefits of his signature tax cuts under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). However, recent projections reveal that these same tax policies have significantly shortened the financial lifespans of both Medicare and Social Security, pushing them toward insolvency at an accelerated rate. While Trump claims to prioritize these programs, his administration’s actions have weakened their long-term sustainability. The OBBBA, which includes significant tax cuts, has reduced revenue flowing into the Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund, a key component of Medicare that covers essential services like hospital stays and hospice care. The HI Trust Fund is now projected to be exhausted by 2040, nearly a decade earlier than previously expected. Similarly, Social Security’s trust fund is set to run out by 2032, leaving beneficiaries at risk of significant benefit cuts. If Congress fails to act, Medicare would face an 8% cut in benefits starting in 2040, while Social Security recipients could see their benefits reduced by nearly $18,400 annually for a typical couple. These financial challenges stem from the combination of lower tax revenues and reduced payroll taxes resulting from Trump’s policies. The CBO reports that these changes have drained critical funding from both programs, leaving them more vulnerable to insolvency. While Trump has criticized

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Originally published on Fortune on 2/25/2026