Trump Was Always Wrong About the Trade Deficit

National Review

by The Editors

February 20, 2026

AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary

Economists have long argued that tariffs would not significantly alter the overall trade balance, and recent evidence has largely corroborated this view. President Trump’s persistent focus on reducing the trade deficit through protectionist measures like tariffs has been widely criticized by experts, who maintain that such policies are unlikely to achieve their stated goals. Instead, these measures have often led to unintended consequences, such as retaliatory actions from other countries and increased costs for American consumers. The article highlights how Trump’s belief that tariffs would force other nations to buy more American goods was fundamentally flawed. In reality, countries like China and Canada adjusted by reducing their purchases of U.S. exports or shifting their focus to other global markets. Meanwhile, U.S. imports dropped only marginally, while exports remained relatively stable, indicating that the overall trade balance was not significantly impacted. This aligns with economists’ predictions that tariffs would have a minimal effect on the broader trade picture. The implications of these findings are particularly relevant for understanding the political and economic landscape under Trump’s presidency. His administration’s trade policies were often framed as a way to protect American jobs and industries, but the reality has been more complex. Tariffs have not delivered the sweeping changes Trump promised, and in some cases, they have harmed sectors like agriculture and manufacturing through retaliatory measures from trading partners. This underscores the importance of relying on expert analysis rather than political rhetoric when evaluating the impact of economic policies. Ultimately, this discussion matters because it highlights the dangers of oversimplifying complex economic systems. While protectionist measures may appeal to certain voters, they often fail to deliver their promised benefits and can lead to unintended negative consequences. For readers interested in politics and economics, understanding the nuances of trade policy is crucial for evaluating its real-world impact and making informed decisions about the future.

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Originally published on National Review on 2/20/2026