Trump’s endgame in Iran: Regime change without US ‘boots on the ground’
Al Jazeera
March 4, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
President Donald Trump's strategy in Iran appears to aim for regime change without deploying US ground forces, a goal that analysts warn may be difficult to achieve solely through air power. Experts, including Kelly Grieco from the Stimson Center and Matthew Duss from the Center for International Policy, emphasize that historical examples, such as Libya, show regime change typically requires ground operations led by local forces. While Trump has called on Iranians to overthrow their government, there's currently no significant opposition movement capable of doing so.
Some US officials have set more limited objectives, focusing on dismantling Iran's nuclear and military programs rather than collapsing the regime. For instance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has highlighted targeting Iran's missile and drone capabilities as a key aim. Meanwhile, Trump administration officials, like Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth, have downplayed the likelihood of an extended conflict, contrasting it with past "forever wars."
The war's lack of ground troops has already made it unpopular, with only 25% of Americans supporting the campaign, according to recent polls. This low approval rate could drop further if ground operations are introduced, as seen in Iraq, where public support was higher initially but eroded over time.
This situation underscores the complexities of US foreign policy and raises questions about whether military actions can achieve political change without significant domestic and international costs. The outcome will shape perceptions of American strategy in Iran and its broader implications for global stability.
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Originally published on Al Jazeera on 3/4/2026