Trump’s Iran Battle Plan

Foreign Policy

by Ravi Agrawal

February 24, 2026

AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary

President Donald Trump is considering potential military action against Iran within the next two months, following the successful Venezuela mission. Retired General David Petraeus, a former CIA director and NATO commander, discussed the military options being presented to Trump, emphasizing the risks involved in such a strike. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has highlighted concerns about missile math—calculating how many Iranian missiles remain and their potential to bypass U.S. defenses, which are already stretched thin after recent use in Ukraine and Israel’s defense during the 12-day war. Petraeus noted that while U.S. military operations have been successful so far, luck has played a role. The Venezuelan mission, for instance, avoided casualties despite its risks. However, an attack on Iran would face significant challenges, including potential Iranian retaliation through proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon or Iraqi militias supported by Tehran. This could lead to broader regional instability and costly consequences. Additionally, the recent withdrawal of nonessential personnel from U.S. embassies in Beirut and other locations underscores concerns about vulnerabilities. The discussion also revealed that Iran’s air defense systems have been weakened over time. The Israeli military successfully neutralized Russia-provided S-300 missile systems during their conflict with Hezbollah, leaving Iran’s defenses more vulnerable to airstrikes. However, the risks of loss of life and broader escalation remain high, as seen in past U.S. military missteps like Desert One and the Beirut barracks attack. This public debate over military strategy highlights the delicate balance Trump faces between asserting a strong stance against Iran and avoiding unnecessary conflict. The potential for unintended consequences underscores the importance of careful planning and risk assessment. As tensions rise, the administration’s ability to navigate these complexities will be closely watched by global observers. For readers interested in politics and international relations, this situation offers critical insights into the challenges of modern military strategy and diplomacy. It also raises questions about how Trump’s approach to Iran aligns with broader U.S. foreign policy goals and regional stability.

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Originally published on Foreign Policy on 2/24/2026