Trump’s tariff wars reshaped US-China trade – at what cost to American firms?
South China Morning Post
by Luna SunMarch 3, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
The trade policies implemented by former U.S. President Donald Trump during his tenure have significantly reshaped U.S.-China trade dynamics, with notable consequences for American businesses. According to Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and former chief economist at the U.S. State Department, China would have imported nearly 60% more goods from the United States in 2025 had it not been for Trump’s trade wars. This potential shortfall amounts to approximately $90 billion annually. Bown’s analysis highlights how the tariffs imposed by Trump led to a sharp decline in U.S. exports to China, dropping by 25.8% in 2025 compared to previous years.
The trade war, which began with Trump’s imposition of tariffs on Chinese imports in 2018, escalated tensions between the two economic superpowers. While the U.S. aimed to reduce its trade deficit and protect domestic industries, China responded by implementing retaliatory measures. This back-and-forth escalation disrupted global supply chains and created significant uncertainty for businesses on both sides. American firms, particularly those in sectors like technology and agriculture, faced challenges as Chinese buyers sought alternatives or reduced purchases to avoid the tariffs.
The economic impact of these trade policies has been substantial. Bown’s research suggests that U.S. companies have lost a significant portion of their market share in China, with opportunities for growth being stifled by the ongoing tensions. Additionally, the prolonged conflict has discouraged foreign investment in American supply chains and raised concerns about long-term competitiveness in global markets. As U.S.-China relations remain strained, the implications for trade, economic growth, and international cooperation continue to evolve.
For readers interested in understanding the broader implications of this trade war, it’s clear that Trump’s policies have had far-reaching consequences. The decline in U.S. exports to China not only affects individual businesses but also has significant ramifications for global trade dynamics and geopolitical relations. As the world watches, the long-term effects on economic stability, innovation, and international partnerships will likely be felt for years to come.
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Originally published on South China Morning Post on 3/3/2026