Trump’s trade war will reach a cease-fire — but the post-midterm battle could bruise your portfolio

MarketWatch

by Matt Gertken

February 24, 2026

AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary

Trump’s trade war is set to escalate further in 2027, marking his final opportunity as president to advance his goal of protecting American industries. While the situation may de-escalate by mid-2026, there are no guarantees it will resolve neatly before the 2028 election. This ongoing conflict reflects a broader geopolitical response to internal divisions and external threats from Russia and China. The article highlights that Trump's trade policies are often viewed as a cyclical issue rather than a long-term structural shift. This perspective is supported by historical patterns in U.S. politics, where such measures tend to be both delayed and excessive in addressing significant challenges. The current administration’s approach aligns with past trends but risks overcomplicating solutions to complex global issues. For investors, the potential volatility in markets due to Trump's trade actions poses significant risks. While the policies may not represent a permanent shift in economic strategy, they could still cause short-term disruptions and impact investment portfolios. Understanding this cyclical nature is crucial for financial planning and managing market expectations amid geopolitical tensions. The article underscores the importance of staying informed about how these trade dynamics might evolve and interact with broader economic trends. Investors should consider diversification and long-term strategies to navigate the uncertainties associated with Trump's trade war and its potential aftermath in the coming years.

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Originally published on MarketWatch on 2/24/2026