Two Scenarios for Europe as Trump Talks to Putin
Foreign Policy
by Agathe DemaraisFebruary 23, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
As Trump engages in talks with Putin, Europe faces two potential outcomes that could shape the future of the four-year conflict in Ukraine. The first scenario involves a U.S.-brokered peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, which could lead to sanctions relief from the United States and possibly the European Union. This would likely allow Russian oil tankers supplying China and India to operate without restrictions, creating economic dilemmas for Europe as it navigates its own sanctions policies and energy dependencies. Additionally, U.S. involvement in developing Russian oil and gas deposits could shift the focus toward reconstruction, potentially increasing Russia’s influence in the region.
The second scenario is a breakdown in negotiations, which could strengthen transatlantic collaboration on Ukraine and result in tougher sanctions against Russia. This would likely reinforce Europe’s commitment to supporting Kyiv while maintaining pressure on Moscow. However, it also raises concerns about how this prolonged conflict will impact European economies and international relations.
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Originally published on Foreign Policy on 2/23/2026