UFC Fight Night odds, props, card: Strickland vs. Hernandez picks, predictions from 10,000 model simulations
CBS Sports
by
Ross Kelly
February 20, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
UFC Fight Night returns this Saturday with a highly anticipated showdown between top-5 middleweights Sean Strickland and Anthony Hernandez in the main event. Strickland, ranked No. 3, faces off against Hernandez, who sits at No. 4, in a clash of contrasting styles. The bout, available on Paramount+, features two fighters with impressive resumes—Strickland as a former UFC champion known for his striking prowess and lengthy fight durations, while Hernandez boasts the division's record for takedowns and an eight-fight winning streak.
Strickland, 34, has been a staple in the UFC since 2014, logging over 1,465 significant strikes landed, the most in middleweight history. Despite his success, Strickland has faced setbacks recently, including back-to-back losses to Dricus du Plessis and a failed title defense earlier this year. His ability to bounce back will be crucial as he seeks to avoid consecutive defeats for the second time in his career.
Hernandez, 32, brings immense momentum to the cage with eight straight wins, a streak tied for the longest active run in the division. Known for his grappling skills, Hernandez has landed an impressive 54 takedowns—more than any other fighter in middleweight history. His quick finishes and submission expertise contrast sharply with Strickland's slower, more methodical style.
The fight is a pivotal moment for both fighters. For Strickland, it's an opportunity to rebound from recent losses and reaffirm his place among the elite. Hernandez, meanwhile, aims to extend his win streak and solidify his position as a title contender. The clash of striking versus grappling adds another layer of intrigue, making this bout a must-watch event for MMA fans.
SportsLine's UFC projection model has run 10,000 simulations to predict the outcome, factoring in each fighter's strengths and weaknesses. Strickland enters as an underdog with +22
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Originally published on CBS Sports on 2/20/2026