UFC Fight Night odds, props, card: Strickland vs. Hernandez picks, predictions from 10,000 model simulations
CBS Sports
by
Ross Kelly
February 21, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
UFC Fight Night returns this Saturday with a highly anticipated clash between top-5 middleweights Sean Strickland and Anthony Hernandez. The event, streaming exclusively on Paramount+, features a compelling main event where No. 3-ranked Strickland faces off against No. 4-ranked Hernandez in what promises to be an explosive showdown. With Strickland entering as the underdog (+220) and Hernandez favored at -270, the bout has sparked significant interest among MMA fans and bettors alike.
Strickland, a former UFC middleweight champion with a career-high 34 professional bouts, brings a wealth of experience to the cage. Known for his high volume of significant strikes, Strickland has landed over 1,465 in his career, ranking him third overall in the UFC. However, recent form has been mixed, as he has dropped two of his last three fights, including a title loss to Dricus du Plessis earlier this year. This bout represents an opportunity for Strickland to avoid consecutive losses and regain momentum.
In contrast, Hernandez, a 32-year-old with half the career experience of Strickland (18 bouts), boasts the longest active win streak in the middleweight division at eight fights. His aggressive style and superior takedown rate—landing 54 takedowns, the most in the division’s history—has made him a dominant force. Hernandez has finished nine of his 15 wins by submission, showcasing his ability to end fights early. This clash will test whether Strickland’s durability and experience can overcome Hernandez’s relentless pace and finisher mentality.
The fight also marks a significant moment for MMA betting enthusiasts, as SportsLine’s projection model has consistently delivered accurate predictions through rigorous simulations. By analyzing over 500 fights and running 10,000 simulations for this matchup, the model provides valuable insights into potential outcomes based on factors like fighter attributes, round-by-round dynamics, and finishing tendencies.
For fans of MMA, this fight represents a thrilling collision of contrasting styles—Strickland’s methodical, technical approach versus Hernandez’s high-octane, momentum-driven game. The outcome could shift the narrative in both fighters’ careers, making it a must-watch event for any sports enthusiast looking for excitement and drama. With the stakes high and the action unpredictable, this bout promises to be a defining moment in the middleweight division.
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Originally published on CBS Sports on 2/21/2026