Uganda cites contentious IEA fossil fuel scenario backed by Trump administration

Climate Change News

by Vivian Chime

March 2, 2026

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Uganda's government has defended its plans to expand its oil industry by citing the International Energy Agency (IEA)'s Current Policies Scenario (CPS), which assumes minimal climate action and projects sustained growth in fossil fuel demand until 2050. This scenario, criticized for being overly pessimistic on climate efforts, aligns with policies favored under former U.S. President Donald Trump's administration, which pushed for continued fossil fuel use. Energy experts warn that Uganda's strategy to fund development through oil production and exports is risky, as it could face cost overruns and market oversupply as the world shifts away from fossil fuels. The IEA's World Energy Outlook 2025 report includes multiple scenarios, ranging from net zero emissions by 2050 to the CPS, which reflects current policies with no further emissions reductions. The CPS was removed from the report in 2020 but reintroduced last year under pressure from the Trump administration, which criticized the IEA's focus on climate action. Uganda's reliance on this scenario highlights the ongoing tension between fossil fuel-dependent economies and global efforts to transition away from carbon-intensive energy sources. Uganda's oil ambitions involve developing two Lake Albert oilfields—Tilenga and Kingfisher—and constructing a 900-mile pipeline to transport 230,000 barrels of crude daily to Tanzania's Tanga port for export. The government argues that domestic oil production will reduce reliance on imported petroleum and protect the economy. However, critics argue that this approach ignores long-term climate risks and market shifts, as global demand for fossil fuels is expected to decline. The debate underscores the broader challenges faced by African nations balancing economic development with climate action. While some countries have embraced renewable energy, others like Uganda are doubling down on oil despite its role in driving global warming. The IEA has emphasized that none of

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Originally published on Climate Change News on 3/2/2026