US officials sceptical of Iran regime change after Khamenei killing, sources say
South China Morning Post
by ReutersMarch 2, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has sparked skepticism among senior US officials about whether a regime change in Iran is likely in the near future. Despite initial expectations that toppling the Iranian government might be a key goal of US and Israeli military operations, many officials remain doubtful about achieving this objective quickly. President Donald Trump and other US leaders had previously hinted at aiming to dismantle Iran’s repressive system alongside efforts to cripple its ballistic missile and nuclear capabilities. However, the aftermath of Khamenei’s death has raised questions about how feasible such a shift would be.
Iran’s political structure is known for its resilience, with deep-rooted institutions and a strong military presence under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Even with Khamenei’s removal, experts suggest that Iran’s political leadership may adapt rather than collapse. The Supreme Leader’s role as a symbolic figurehead has historically given him immense influence, but his absence could lead to a more fragmented power structure among competing factions within the regime. This dynamic could complicate efforts to achieve significant change, as Iran’s leaders are likely to rally around their institutions to maintain control.
The skepticism from US officials reflects broader concerns about the complexity of Iran’s political landscape and the challenges of achieving regime change through military means alone. While Khamenei’s death is a significant event, it remains unclear how it will play out in the short term. The Iranian government may focus on internal consolidation of power rather than engaging in concessions or reforms. Additionally, international reactions and potential escalations in regional tensions could further complicate efforts to destabilize Iran.
For readers interested in global politics, this situation highlights the intricate dynamics at play in Iran and the limitations of military intervention in achieving regime change. The outcome of this unfolding scenario will have far-reaching implications for regional stability, US-Iran relations, and international security. As the dust settles following Khamenei’s death, the focus will likely shift to how Iran’s leadership navigates internal challenges and external pressures, shaping the future of the Islamic Republic.
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Originally published on South China Morning Post on 3/2/2026