US plan to pull forces from Okinawa tested by China's rise
Deutsche Welle
February 24, 2026
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The United States is reconsidering its plan to reduce its military presence in Okinawa amid rising concerns over China's increasing influence in the region, particularly its intentions toward Taiwan. The decades-long effort to move thousands of marines from the Japanese island has been met with resistance, as experts warn that such a shift could undermine deterrence against China. While initial plans called for relocating around 9,000 marines to bases in Guam, Hawaii, South Korea, and northern Australia, some now argue for maintaining a stronger presence in Okinawa to counterbalance China's military buildup.
The decision to scale down US forces in Okinawa was first outlined in the 2012 plan under the US-Japan Defense Policy Review Initiative (DPRI). However, the move has been delayed due to strong opposition from local residents, fueled by historical tensions, including the infamous 1995 Okinawa rape incident. The slow withdrawal of marines began in December 2024, with a small contingent leaving the island for Guam. Yet, this process is now being questioned, with reports suggesting that abandoning the reduction plan could be necessary to maintain strategic deterrence against China.
The Atlantic Council has warned that removing US forces from Okinawa would hand Beijing a strategic advantage, as it seeks to assert dominance in the region and potentially act against Taiwan. Experts argue that keeping a robust military presence in Okinawa, combined with stronger economic and political commitments to Japan and regional allies, could better counterbalance China's growing influence. This includes leveraging Okinawa's strategic location to delay enemy advances and buy time for reinforcements in case of conflict.
The US is now reevaluating its force posture in Japan, considering alternative strategies such as deploying specialized missile batteries or smaller, more capable units to maintain a strong defensive presence without overburdening local communities. This approach could also align with Japan's increasing defense spending and shift toward southern regions,
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Originally published on Deutsche Welle on 2/24/2026