Warming Climate Can Increase Avalanche Risk, Studies Show

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by Eric Niiler

February 19, 2026

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California's Sierra Nevada region is experiencing a paradoxical shift due to climate change: while the number of snowy days is decreasing, the snow that does fall is becoming heavier and wetter, increasing the risk of avalanches. Recent research highlights how a warming climate is leading to more intense atmospheric river events, which bring heavy precipitation and can destabilize snowpacks at higher elevations. This has contributed to a rise in avalanche risks, as seen in recent incidents like the tragic avalanche near Lake Tahoe that killed eight backcountry skiers. Experts explain that warmer temperatures can lead to unstable snow conditions. Even though overall snowfall days are declining, when snow does fall, it is often in larger quantities, creating heavier loads on mountain slopes. This combination of heavy, wet snow and unstable layers in the snowpack makes avalanche conditions more likely, especially during intense storm systems. The role of atmospheric rivers—moisture-rich air currents from tropical regions—is critical in driving these changes. These phenomena can lead to extreme precipitation events, further exacerbating avalanche risks in mountainous areas. Researchers emphasize that while climate change doesn't directly cause avalanches, it amplifies the factors that make them more probable and dangerous. This shift has significant implications for public safety, particularly for backcountry skiers, hikers, and motorists in mountain regions. Authorities are urging increased awareness and caution as the warming climate continues to alter snow patterns and elevate avalanche risks. Understanding these changes is crucial for anyone living or recreating in avalanche-prone areas, as the consequences of unpreparedness can be deadly. In summary, while California's Sierra Nevada may see fewer snowy days overall, the potential for severe avalanches is growing due to heavier, wetter snowfalls linked to a warming climate. This highlights the importance of staying informed and prepared for changing weather conditions in mountainous regions.

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Originally published on NYT Homepage on 2/19/2026