What could happen if the US strikes Iran? Here are seven scenarios
BBC World
February 19, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
The US appears to be escalating tensions with Iran by deploying significant military forces in the Middle East, possibly signaling intentions to strike. While this could be a strategic move to pressure Tehran into negotiations, the potential consequences are far-reaching and uncertain. Frank Gardner explores seven scenarios if the US were to attack Iran, ranging from targeted strikes aimed at regime change to broader regional instability.
One optimistic scenario involves limited, precision airstrikes targeting Iran's military infrastructure, potentially leading to regime collapse and a transition to democracy. However, historical precedents in Iraq and Libya show that such outcomes are rarely smooth and often lead to prolonged chaos. On the other end of the spectrum, Iran might respond by escalating violence, using its arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones to retaliate against US forces, Arab neighbors, and possibly Israel.
Another possible outcome is military rule emerging in Iran if the regime collapses but lacks civilian leadership capable of taking over. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and other security groups could seize power, maintaining a strong grip on governance. Additionally, Iran's moderate policies might shift under intense pressure, though this seems unlikely given the entrenched positions of the current leadership.
The situation is further complicated by the unpredictable nature of Iran's response. While direct US military superiority is undeniable, Iran has shown it can inflict significant pain through asymmetric warfare tactics. This dynamic raises concerns about regional stability and economic impacts, particularly with global oil supplies potentially disrupted.
Ultimately, the implications of a US strike on Iran go beyond the immediate conflict, affecting Middle East stability, international relations, and global energy markets. The stakes are high for all parties involved, making this a critical issue to monitor for anyone interested in world affairs and geopolitical tensions.
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Originally published on BBC World on 2/19/2026