What early Bitcoin (BTC) architect Adam Back thinks of this cycle

CoinDesk

by Helene Braun

February 25, 2026

AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary

Bitcoin's recent volatility has puzzled many investors, especially as institutional adoption gains traction and regulatory clarity improves. However, Adam Back, cited in Bitcoin's 2008 white paper, argues that this price fluctuation is expected during market cycles. Speaking at the iConnections conference in Miami Beach, he noted that Bitcoin often experiences a drop around this time, with some traders capitalizing on historical patterns rather than reacting to current fundamentals. Despite these challenges, Back remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term growth. Bitcoin entered 2024 with promising developments, including a more crypto-friendly U.S. administration and the arrival of spot ETFs. These factors were expected to boost institutional participation. However, Bitcoin's price has fallen by approximately 26% over the past year, contrary to expectations. It has also shown a tendency to align with broader market trends, unlike its earlier years. Back highlighted structural differences between retail and institutional investors. While retail traders tend to invest heavily during upswings, institutions can maintain stability through rebalancing their portfolios. He emphasized that institutional adoption is still in its early stages, despite regulatory progress. Larger pools of capital have yet to enter the market, which he believes will eventually reduce volatility as adoption matures. Drawing parallels to high-growth stocks like Amazon, Back suggested Bitcoin's current phase mirrors such equities' unpredictable nature during their growth phases. He expects reduced volatility as more institutions and sovereigns adopt Bitcoin, potentially making its price swings resemble those of gold. Comparing Bitcoin's market cap to gold's, he sees significant room for growth if Bitcoin continues to establish itself as a digital store of value. Back's insights are crucial for crypto investors navigating Bitcoin's unpredictable market cycles. His perspective underscores the importance of patience and understanding historical precedents in managing expectations during volatile periods. As institutional adoption progresses, Bitcoin's future trajectory may stabilize, offering long-term benefits for those willing to invest beyond short-term fluctuations.

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Originally published on CoinDesk on 2/25/2026