What is a Centipawn Advantage?
Hacker News
February 19, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
The centipawn advantage is a metric used by computer chess engines like Stockfish and Lichess to evaluate the strength of a position in terms of probabilities rather than material value. Unlike traditional pawn values, which are based on static piece evaluations, centipawns represent an approximate measure of the chances of winning, drawing, or losing from a given position. This system allows players to understand the strategic depth of a position in probabilistic terms, making it a valuable tool for analyzing game outcomes.
The concept of centipawns originates from Stockfish's evaluation documentation, where a 100 centipawn advantage corresponds to a 50% chance of winning under optimal play. This metric is derived from a reference graph that maps centipawn values to probabilities of win, draw, and loss outcomes. For example, at 74 centipawns below the midpoint (a disadvantage), the analysis suggests a 23% chance of losing, a 77% chance of drawing, and minimal chances of winning. This probabilistic approach provides a more dynamic understanding of position strength compared to static piece valuations.
While centipawns are not directly equivalent to pawn material value or Elo rating differences, they offer a unique perspective for evaluating positions. A 100 centipawn advantage translates roughly to an Elo difference of 190 points, reflecting the non-linear relationship between these metrics. This conversion is influenced by how draws are treated in each system—centipawns account for separate win, draw, and loss probabilities, whereas Elo treats draws as half-wins. This distinction highlights the importance of context when interpreting centipawn values.
The centipawn system's reliance on probabilistic outcomes makes it particularly useful for understanding complex positions where material advantage may not directly correlate with victory. However, it also has limitations, such as varying pawn values based on their role in the position (e.g., a pawn protecting a piece might be worth more than its static value). These nuances underscore the need to combine centipawn analysis with positional understanding.
For tech enthusiasts and chess players alike, the centipawn advantage offers a sophisticated way to analyze game
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Originally published on Hacker News on 2/19/2026