What next for bitcoin as Iran attacks U.S. bases? BTC likely to head lower

CoinDesk

by Shaurya Malwa

February 28, 2026

AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary

Bitcoin faces heightened risks of further decline amid escalating tensions between Iran and the U.S. Middle East. Tehran has launched missile and drone attacks targeting not only Israel but also American bases and Gulf allies, with reports of explosions in Dubai, Kuwait, and Bahrain. This military escalation, which followed an initial Israeli strike on Iran, has created significant uncertainty in global financial markets, including cryptocurrencies. The cryptocurrency market, already reeling from earlier drops linked to the conflict's onset, saw Bitcoin fall below $64,000 but stabilize above $63,000 during the retaliatory phase. However, thin weekend liquidity and pending reopenings of traditional markets could amplify price volatility when equities, oil, and bonds resume trading. A potential "second wave" of risk-off selling across asset classes could push Bitcoin toward $60,000 or lower if traditional markets experience sharp declines. This situation differs from past Middle East escalations, where cryptocurrencies often recovered as markets absorbed the news and tensions eased. However, the current conflict's regional scope—impacting critical economic hubs like Dubai and Bahrain—poses a more severe challenge for Bitcoin. If the conflict broadens, oil prices could surge, triggering global risk aversion and deeper losses for the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin's performance during crises has historically mirrored that of traditional risk assets rather than behaving as a safe-haven asset like gold. While it briefly stabilized during earlier drops due to thin trading volumes and weekend mechanics, its long-term resilience will depend on how the broader financial markets respond to this escalating conflict. Investors closely tracking these developments should remain cautious about Bitcoin's trajectory in the face of heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

Verticals

cryptofinance

Originally published on CoinDesk on 2/28/2026