Why bitcoin needs to fall another 20% before it’s even worth a look

MarketWatch

by Mark Hulbert

February 14, 2026

AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary

Bitcoin’s current trajectory may not align with its perceived potential as a store of value, according to Mark Hulbert, whose model suggests that the cryptocurrency is overvalued and needs to fall by another 20% before it becomes worth considering. Hulbert, a former commodities portfolio manager at TCW Group, has long maintained that Bitcoin’s fair value is around $55,000, far below its current trading levels. This perspective has been met with skepticism in the past, especially during periods when Bitcoin prices surged above $125,000, but his model remains a key indicator for assessing long-term sustainability and risk. Hulbert’s approach to valuing Bitcoin is based on a unique methodology that incorporates historical price-to-lease ratios and energy costs associated with mining. This data-driven model contrasts sharply with more speculative narratives surrounding cryptocurrencies, which often focus on trends, market sentiment, or technological advancements. By emphasizing fundamental analysis, Hulbert’s framework provides a contrarian viewpoint that challenges the notion of Bitcoin as a purely speculative asset. The significance of this perspective lies in its implications for both investors and the broader financial markets. If Bitcoin is indeed overvalued, its correction could have far-reaching consequences, impacting not only individual portfolios but also the perception of cryptocurrencies as viable investments. For those interested in finance, Hulbert’s model underscores the importance of applying rigorous analytical frameworks to assess the true value of assets, especially those that operate in volatile and often speculative markets. Ultimately, whether Bitcoin falls to $55,000 or further depends on a complex interplay of factors, including technological developments, regulatory changes, and market sentiment. However, Hulbert’s model serves as a reminder that even in the realm of digital assets, fundamental analysis remains a critical tool for understanding risk and long-term viability. For investors, this means approaching Bitcoin with caution and a focus on data-driven insights rather than hype or speculation.

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Originally published on MarketWatch on 2/14/2026