Why Expert Predictions So Often Fail
Psychology Today
by Matt Grawitch Ph.D.February 23, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
Expert predictions often fail not because expertise itself is flawed, but because predicting uncertain futures is rarely within an expert's area of strength. True expertise lies in judgment, particularly the ability to recognize patterns from past experiences and apply them to current situations. Experts excel at diagnosing problems, interpreting evidence, and evaluating tradeoffs under constraints—functions that require deep contextual understanding rather than crystal-ball predictions.
The article clarifies that expertise is not about having superior logic or broad knowledge, but about recognizing recurring patterns through experience. This "recognition-primed decision making" allows experts to make quick, effective judgments within their "expertise bubble"—a range of situations aligned with their experience. However, this strength fades when dealing with novel conditions, unfamiliar environments, or long-term outcomes where reliable guidance is absent.
In dynamic fields like health and mental health, trusting expert predictions can be misleading. For instance, an expert might provide advice without adequate information
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Originally published on Psychology Today on 2/23/2026