Why Iran is betting on war
Financial Times
February 19, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
Iran is betting that prolonging its conflict with the U.S. and its allies could ultimately lead to a more favorable outcome than what President Trump’s current approach offers. Tehran believes a drawn-out war might weaken international pressure and create leverage for better terms in negotiations, particularly regarding economic sanctions and diplomatic relations. This strategy reflects Iran's long-standing approach of using brinkmanship to achieve its goals, even as global tensions rise.
The article suggests that Iran is willing to endure significant economic and political costs in the hope of securing a more advantageous deal down the line. By extending the conflict, Tehran aims to test the resolve of its adversaries and create uncertainty in global markets, which could eventually pressure the U.S. and its allies to offer concessions. This approach is rooted in Iran's belief that prolonged instability can work in its favor, especially as it seeks to counteract the economic sanctions imposed by Trump’s administration.
For business readers, this dynamic carries significant implications. A protracted conflict with Iran could disrupt global oil markets, affecting prices and supply chains. Additionally, it could strain international trade relations and complicate diplomatic efforts in the region. Businesses reliant on Middle Eastern trade routes or energy supplies might face increased volatility, while investors may need to reassess risk assessments in light of prolonged geopolitical tensions.
The article underscores the complex interplay between economic sanctions, military strategy, and diplomatic leverage in Iran's calculus. Tehran’s decision to bet on a longer conflict highlights its strategic patience and willingness to endure short-term costs for long-term gains. This approach not only shapes regional dynamics but also has far-reaching consequences for global business and finance.
Ultimately, the article emphasizes that Iran’s strategy is deeply tied to its economic survival and geopolitical ambitions. By prolonging the conflict, Tehran aims to rewrite the terms of engagement on its own terms, even as the U.S. and its allies push back. This underscores the unpredictable nature of international relations and the high stakes involved for businesses operating in this volatile environment.
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Originally published on Financial Times on 2/19/2026