Why Oil Markets Are Worried About Trump Attacking Iran
Forbes Business
by Ed Hirs, ContributorFebruary 20, 2026
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Why Oil Markets Are Worried About Trump Attacking Iran
The possibility of a U.S. military strike on Iran has oil markets on edge, as it could significantly disrupt global oil supplies and drive up prices. Unlike Venezuela, which faces economic collapse due to mismanagement, Iran's advanced infrastructure ensures uninterrupted production despite sanctions. As one of the world's top oil exporters, any conflict involving Iran would likely lead to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, affecting businesses and consumers globally.
Iran's strategic location in the Persian Gulf makes it particularly vulnerable to geopolitical tensions. A U.S. attack could target key facilities like oil refineries and export terminals, potentially halting up to 2 million barrels of daily production. This is double the impact compared to Venezuela, which has seen a gradual decline in output due to economic sanctions.
The knock-on effects on global oil markets would be severe. If production from Iran's major fields is disrupted, countries heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil, such as China and Japan, would face supply shortages. Refiners might struggle to source enough crude, leading to higher prices for gasoline, diesel, and other refined products. This could strain corporate budgets and consumer spending.
The financial markets are already reflecting this uncertainty. Oil futures have shown significant volatility, with prices spiking above $60 per barrel on concerns about
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Originally published on Forbes Business on 2/20/2026