Why the Fed could deliver one final sting to your portfolio before Powell’s exit in May

MarketWatch

by Mark Hulbert

February 19, 2026

AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary

The article explores the possibility that U.S. interest rates could rise significantly before Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's term concludes in May. While traditional factors like economic strength or labor market data are often cited as reasons for rate hikes, the analysis suggests a historical pattern where outgoing Fed chairs have raised rates in their final months in office. This trend may influence Powell's decisions, potentially leading to higher interest rates despite current economic conditions. Historically, Fed chairs near the end of their tenure have increased rates to solidify their legacy or ensure their policies are firmly in place. This behavior could indicate that the Fed might prioritize raising rates over maintaining鸽派 policies, even if economic indicators suggest otherwise. Investors and savers should be cautious, as higher rates can impact borrowing costs and reduce bond values. For readers interested in finance, understanding this potential rate hike's implications is crucial. Portfolios may face challenges as rising rates can negatively affect fixed-income assets and increase borrowing expenses. Staying informed about the Fed's historical behavior and its possible impact on financial markets is essential for making strategic investment decisions. This article highlights a unique angle on Federal Reserve policy, emphasizing the importance of considering leadership dynamics when predicting interest rate changes. By recognizing this pattern, readers can better navigate the complexities of the current economic landscape and adjust their financial strategies accordingly.

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Originally published on MarketWatch on 2/19/2026