Will petrol and diesel prices go up because of the Iran war?
BBC World
March 2, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has sent oil prices soaring, raising concerns about potential increases in petrol and diesel prices for drivers worldwide. Iran's restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—a critical waterway responsible for 20% of global oil and gas shipments—have created uncertainty about the long-term impact on energy costs. Experts warn that sustained high oil prices could trickle down to fuel prices, with motorists potentially facing higher costs at the pump over the coming months.
According to motoring groups like the AA and RAC, rising crude oil prices could lead to petrol prices returning to levels seen earlier this year. Currently, petrol in the UK averages 133.2p per litre, while diesel stands at 142.7p. If oil prices climb to $80 per barrel and remain there, drivers could see petrol prices rise to around 136p per litre. Even higher oil prices—such as $90 or $100 per barrel—could push fuel costs significantly higher. However, experts stress that the duration and severity of the conflict will determine how much prices ultimately increase.
The knock-on effects of higher fuel costs extend beyond transportation to impact food prices as well. Businesses transporting goods like food face increased expenses, which could be passed on to consumers. Additionally, oil is a key component in fertiliser production, potentially raising agricultural costs and further contributing to food price inflation. While short-term disruptions may not immediately affect food prices, prolonged higher fuel costs could lead to long-term increases.
For energy bills, UK households currently have some protection from rising wholesale costs due to government price caps. However, these protections are set for a few months, after which variable tariffs could be influenced by ongoing conflicts. Meanwhile, the conflict
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Originally published on BBC World on 3/2/2026