Will Trump’s Luck Run Out if He Attacks Iran Again?
Foreign Policy
by John HaltiwangerFebruary 25, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
The United States has significantly increased its military presence in the Middle East, reminiscent of pre-2003 Iraq invasion levels, as President Donald Trump weighs the possibility of launching fresh strikes on Iran. While the build-up provides Trump with various options should he decide to attack, senior military leaders have cautioned him about the substantial risks involved, including potential casualties for U.S. and allied forces. Despite these warnings, Trump has downplayed concerns, expressing confidence in a swift and successful outcome if conflict arises.
Retired military officials, however, express serious doubts about the feasibility of such an operation. They highlight the challenges of targeting Iran's advanced air defenses, which could pose significant threats to incoming aircraft. For instance, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Adm. James Stavridis warned that Iran’s defenses, though weakened, are still capable of inflicting damage if not adequately neutralized beforehand. This suggests a complex and risky scenario for U.S. forces, requiring precise planning and execution.
Trump’s decision to consider new military actions comes after a series of successful operations in 2023, including strikes on key Iranian nuclear sites and the high-profile raid to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. However, experts like retired Army General David Petraeus caution that Trump has been fortunate thus far, with minimal U.S. casualties despite the inherent dangers of such missions. The Maduro operation, in particular, was fraught with risks, as a U.S. helicopter faced heavy fire and narrowly avoided disaster.
The potential for miscalculations or misfortune grows even greater when considering the long-term implications of a prolonged conflict with Iran. Petraeus pointed out that neither Israel nor the U.S. has experienced aircraft malfunctions over Tehran during recent operations—a stroke of luck that could easily turn into a catastrophic event. Such an occurrence would not only escalate tensions but also risk regional stability, further complicating an already volatile situation.
This issue matters deeply to those tracking political and international relations because it underscores the delicate balance between U.S. military dominance and the unpredictable
Verticals
politicsinternational
Originally published on Foreign Policy on 2/25/2026