Will US attack Iran this weekend? What prediction market is betting on
Times of India
by TOI WORLD DESKFebruary 19, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
US-Iran tensions have surged, with prediction markets suggesting a growing belief among traders that the United States might launch a military strike on Iran. On Polymarket, a popular prediction platform, the likelihood of such an attack by March 31, 2026, has climbed to around 57%, up from lower odds in late February. This reflects increasing concern over escalating Middle East tensions, failed diplomatic talks, and US troop movements in the region. While experts emphasize that these markets are not official forecasts, they do indicate how traders perceive geopolitical risks based on current developments.
The rising probability of a strike has already impacted global financial markets. Oil prices have spiked to multi-month highs, with WTI climbing 2.2% to $66.62 a barrel and Brent crude rising 2.0% to $71.76. Wall Street opened lower on Thursday, with major indices like the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all showing early declines amid investor unease about potential supply disruptions and escalating tensions.
Analysts attribute the market reaction to an "under
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Originally published on Times of India on 2/19/2026