Will We See a Supreme Court Vacancy (or Two) This Summer?
RealClearPolitics
by Josh Hammer, NewsweekFebruary 20, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
A potential Supreme Court shakeup looms as the 2022-2023 term approaches its end this summer. With Justices Samuel Alito (75) and Clarence Thomas (77) nearing their mid-80s, speculation about their possible retirements has intensified. Both justices are considered stalwart conservatives, and their departure could reshape the Court’s ideological balance. Their replacements would depend on a Republican-controlled Senate and whether they’re willing to act swiftly or face potential Democratic challenges in the upcoming midterm elections.
The political stakes are high as the 2022 midterms approach. Republicans currently hold a narrow 53-47 majority in the Senate but face an advantageous map with few vulnerable seats to defend. However, Democrats remain hopeful about winning back control of the Senate, which would likely result in filibustering any Trump nominees to fill potential vacancies. This dynamic has sparked concerns among conservatives about maintaining the Court’s conservative majority.历史上，共和党在提名法官方面表现出色，但近年来也出现了一些失误，尤其是在特朗普任期内的选择。如果民主党重掌参议院，他们可能会阻止任何保守派法官的确认，进一步改变最高法院的方向。
The potential vacancies have also revived discussions about judicial longevity and the political motivations behind retirements. Both Thomas and Alito are seen as ideological leaders, and their desire for like-minded successors is clear. However, their decision to stay or leave could hinge on whether Republicans can retain control of the Senate in 2022 and beyond. This high-stakes game could have lasting implications for the Court’s direction and its ability to uphold conservative principles.
Ultimately, the outcome of this summer’s potential vacancies will depend on a complex interplay of politics, ideology, and timing. With both parties closely watching the situation, the stakes couldn’t be higher for the future of the Supreme Court—and by extension, American jurisprudence.
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Originally published on RealClearPolitics on 2/20/2026